A Mid-Season Reconsideration of Top Chef: All Stars L.A.

Top Chef crossed its traditional Rubicon in Restaurant Wars last week, the episode that, more often than not, separates the crowded early part of the season from the more streamlined endgame, where the finish line is in sight. For this All-Stars season in particular, making it past Restaurant Wars still alive and with a chance to win it all (even if it's from your perch in Last Chance Kitchen) is a major accomplishment. Now, however, it's time to look towards the finale. With seven chefs left in the main competition, plus one looking to battle back from LCK, the season's arc is truly taking shape.

At the outset of the season, Primetimer managing editor Joe Reid and I attempted to predict who would perform the best this season. We picked the top 5 chefs we thought would make the finals, choosing Bryan Voltaggio, Eric Adjepong, Gregory Gourdet, Lee Anne Wong, and Stephanie Cmar. Four of those five are still in the competition, but are we willing to stand by them to make it to the finals? With the following rankings, we've re-calibrated our picks, listing the final eight in order of least likely to win to most likely. As you'll see, some of our feelings have definitely changed:

8. Lee Anne Wong

Quickfire wins: 0 Elimination wins: 1

This has been brutal to watch, seeing OG Lee Anne struggle throughout this competition. Even her triumphs have felt so conditional, both coming in team challenges and with rough edits to boot. (Her fighting with Brian Malarkey on her one high-scoring appearance, and her yelling at the servers during her winning Restaurant Wars performance, are not the stuff of a winning Top Chef edit.) We're surprised Lee Anne has made it this far considering just how close she's come to being cut more than once, but her elimination does just seem like a matter of time.

7. Stephanie Cmar

Quickfire wins: 1 Elimination wins: 1

Stephanie's record this season is worse than her wins would indicate. She's appeared in the bottom four times, and hasn't managed to build any momentum in the competition. To her credit, she's stuck around, outlasting big guns like Kevin Gillespie and Nini Nguyen. But I have no idea what her storyline would be if she won this season. The show hasn't even leaned into her unfair elimination in Season 11 to fuel her narrative! Stephanie is a good chef, but we don't think she'll be our All Stars L.A. winner.

6. Brian Malarkey

Quickfire wins: 0 Elimination wins: 1

The chefs selected for this season of Top Chef have been a pretty great and lovable bunch, with a bare minimum of drama and the kind of camaraderie and honorable conduct that makes Top Chef unique among the reality competition landscape. But if there's been a villain this season, Brian Malarkey has come closest to it, with his braying talking-head interviews, his little notebook where he ranks the competition, and his small shady moments like throwing Lee Anne under the bus at Judges' Table or stealing Kevin's place settings for Restaurant Wars. It's hard to see Brian winning, but if the show wants to inject some drama into the finale, we could see Malarkey slide into that top four.

5. Karen Akunowicz

Quickfire wins: 0 Elimination wins: 0 Returned from Last Chance Kitchen

Karen has such an incredibly strong profile away from the show, being a James Beard award winner and all, but it's been frustrating to not have that translate into any wins in the competitions, especially when her early-season narrative of close friendships with Nini and Stephanie ended in disaster. She showed up strong in the LCK return competition, which may have lit the fire in her that’s necessary to win a competition or two and get her into the finale, but it's going to be an uphill climb. She may have to battle back from LCK again to get there.

4. Bryan Voltaggio

Quickfire win: 1 Elimination wins: 0

This is not the record we expected Bryan to have at this point. Outside of a team Quickfire win, Bryan has largely underperformed this season, with several low-scoring dishes in both Quickfire and Elimination challenges. He's still a Voltaggio, so we fully expect him to make it to the finale, but unless he can quickly start picking up more wins, it doesn't feel like he'll be a real threat to take it home when he gets there. Bryan is a cautionary tale of sorts for returning cheftestants: You can be excellent in two other seasons, but with the right crop of competitors, you can quickly find yourself playing the underdog.

3. Kevin Gillespie

Quickfire wins: 3 Elimination wins: 3 Currently in Last Chance Kitchen

Just because Kevin is currently hanging out in Last Chance Kitchen doesn't mean he can't win. Three seasons of Top Chef have seen the ultimate winner emerging from the LCK gauntlet. And with the way Kevin got eliminated — honorably falling on his sword when his team was beaten in Restaurant Wars — his return would make for a nice narrative to go with his already strong story of beating cancer to make it back to the show. Kevin's season has been characterized by highs and lows, but at present, no one in the competition has more wins than him. Don't count him out.

2. Gregory Gourdet

Quickfire wins: 2 Elimination wins: 4

In the 22 total weeks Gregory has been on Top Chef between his original season and this one, he's won the elimination challenge nine times. That's nearly half! The first Top Chef: All-Stars went to a dominant performer in Richard Blais, who many feel ought to have won his original season. Gregory certainly fits that bill. He's been a true star this season and is the only remaining chef this season to have never finished in the bottom on any of the eliminations. At this point, it's inconceivable that he wouldn't make the finals, and once he's there, he's going to be tough to beat.

1. Melissa King

Quickfire wins: 1 Elimination wins: 3

Is this happening? Can we really trust the edit that is setting up Melissa to take this whole thing home? The rise of the King has been a true joy in All Stars L.A., as the cool-as-a-cucumber queen has sliced through her competition and racked up wins. In Boston, her chill demeanor made her fade into the background a bit, but here, it's been her greatest asset in her keeping calm among such legends. Statistically, she may be underperforming compared to Gregory, but her edit has been superior all season long. We're not convinced we won't see some kind of disappointment from her later this season, but for now, Melissa is sitting pretty on the King's throne.

New episodes of Top Chef All Stars air on Bravo Thursday nights at 10:00 PM ET.

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